2016年led顯示屏市場需求值為139億元，同比增長9%，2015年則是同比下滑7%。反轉的主要原因是價格的穩定+顯示業務的部分領域的快速成長。2016年LED市場為589億，同比增長6%，2015年相比于2014年成長2%，主要是價格和終端需求因素。封裝與芯片行業的不同在于還有國際廠商，2016年大陸廠商增長率8%、臺灣企業增長1%、國際企業增長4%。未來依然本土成長最快，以大陸LED顯示屏廠家擴(kuo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)，技術(shu)(shu)差(cha)距(ju)也不(bu)(bu)斷縮小(xiao)，特別(bie)是(shi)(shi)(shi)小(xiao)間(jian)(jian)距(ju)領域(yu)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)優(you)勢(shi)消除。行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)展(zhan)(zhan)望未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)預測，2015-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)進入(ru)(ru)了洗牌期(qi)， 2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)左右(you) 20%-30%的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)都很難(nan)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)，2015-2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)封裝(zhuang)復合(he)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)大概在(zai)(zai)(zai)6%，平(ping)緩發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)供給(gei)(gei)端非(fei)常緊(jin)張，某(mou)些(xie)領域(yu)(小(xiao)間(jian)(jian)距(ju))藍綠(lv)光，無論三(san)安(an)華燦訂單是(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)兩倍。芯片(pian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)迎來(lai)(lai)(lai)拐點，芯片(pian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)下(xia)(xia)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)(yi)(yi)后普遍比(bi)較慘，終(zhong)于迎來(lai)(lai)(lai)轉機。未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)芯片(pian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)議價能(neng)力會提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，封裝(zhuang)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)會有(you)(you)所下(xia)(xia)降。另外國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際廠(chang)如三(san)星、飛利浦可(ke)能(neng)會縮減自己的(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)，趨(qu)勢(shi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)找代工(gong)(gong)廠(chang)。需求(qiu)(qiu)端看：舉室內(nei)LED顯(xian)(xian)示屏(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)例(li)子來(lai)(lai)(lai)說，以(yi)(yi)(yi)前國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際市(shi)場(印度、俄羅(luo)斯)要求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)塊led屏(ping)幕會采購(gou)箱體(ti)(ti)回(hui)去拼裝(zhuang)，現(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)進口、電(dian)源、控制系(xi)統(tong)，從當地進行(xing)(xing)(xing)組(zu)裝(zhuang)，因為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)當地發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)制造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)要從簡單的(de)(de)(de)(de)組(zu)裝(zhuang)做起，高端產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)如芯片(pian)短時(shi)間(jian)(jian)難(nan)以(yi)(yi)(yi)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)自給(gei)(gei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。預測未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)會出(chu)現(xian)(xian)抱(bao)團的(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)象(xiang)，如三(san)安(an)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)、華燦體(ti)(ti)系(xi)、木林(lin)森(sen)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)，抱(bao)團取暖。其他(ta)的(de)(de)(de)(de)廠(chang)商比(bi)較難(nan)生(sheng)存下(xia)(xia)來(lai)(lai)(lai)，就是(shi)(shi)(shi)之前行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)+龍頭強(qiang)者恒(heng)(heng)強(qiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)邏輯。LED于2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)興(xing)起，快速(su)(su)(su)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)-2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要是(shi)(shi)(shi)背光+顯(xian)(xian)示業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務的(de)(de)(de)(de)推動。但2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始，背光市(shi)場的(de)(de)(de)(de)飽和(he)(he)導(dao)致價格(ge)逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要靠(kao)(kao)顯(xian)(xian)示屏(ping)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務的(de)(de)(de)(de)快速(su)(su)(su)滲(shen)透支(zhi)撐(cheng)整(zheng)個(ge)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)。現(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)看到(dao)整(zheng)個(ge)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)(yi)些(xie)變化，即行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)恢復增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)恢復成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)概況，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務出(chu)口總額(e)164億美金，作為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)世界(jie)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要代工(gong)(gong)地區，出(chu)口數(shu)據可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)反映(ying)需求(qiu)(qiu)端變化。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)比(bi)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)沒(mei)有(you)(you)成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，且有(you)(you)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢(shi)(相比(bi)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)64%的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)、2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)16%的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang))，說明(ming)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)靠(kao)(kao)顯(xian)(xian)示業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務推動難(nan)以(yi)(yi)(yi)維系(xi)，進入(ru)(ru)了平(ping)緩的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)期(qi)。芯片(pian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)從供給(gei)(gei)端看，大陸(lu)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)YOY為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)13%，臺(tai)灣(wan)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)-2%，說明(ming)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)率(lv)快速(su)(su)(su)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)化率(lv)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)66%，2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)73%，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)76%，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)率(lv)始終(zhong)處于成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)狀(zhuang)態。往年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)臺(tai)廠(chang)技術(shu)(shu)優(you)勢(shi)明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)大陸(lu)受歡迎，但近些(xie)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三(san)安(an)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)首的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)廠(chang)商與晶(jing)電(dian)差(cha)距(ju)不(bu)(bu)斷縮小(xiao)，甚至在(zai)(zai)(zai)部分(fen)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品領域(yu)已經超越。2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)流廠(chang)商依然(ran)會擴(kuo)大產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)，未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)段時(shi)間(jian)(jian)內(nei)芯片(pian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)率(lv)還(huan)(huan)會進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。另一(yi)(yi)(yi)方面(mian)2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)出(chu)口率(lv)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)8%，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)9.6%，海外市(shi)場也在(zai)(zai)(zai)開拓(tuo)。行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度情況，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)前十大廠(chang)商市(shi)占(zhan)77%，水平(ping)較高，前三(san)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)三(san)安(an)(29%)、晶(jing)電(dian)(13%)、華燦(8%)，未(wei)(wei)(wei)來(lai)(lai)(lai)是(shi)(shi)(shi)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)且強(qiang)者恒(heng)(heng)強(qiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)狀(zhuang)態。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)化率(lv)繼續提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)66%，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)67%。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)化率(lv)較芯片(pian)低，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要因為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際廠(chang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)高端領域(yu)如車(che)用和(he)(he)手機閃(shan)光燈等還(huan)(huan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)有(you)(you)絕對話語權，技術(shu)(shu)門檻很高。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)大陸(lu)廠(chang)商295億產(chan)(chan)(chan)值，8%的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)。產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)度持續提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)前十大市(shi)占(zhan)39%，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)43%。具體(ti)(ti)廠(chang)商看：中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)市(shi)場份(fen)額(e)**還(huan)(huan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)日本日亞(ya)化學 7%，第二木林(lin)森(sen) 6.9%。其他(ta)的(de)(de)(de)(de)飛利浦等國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際依然(ran)有(you)(you)比(bi)較高的(de)(de)(de)(de)份(fen)額(e)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)星、鴻(hong)利等本土(tu)廠(chang)商還(huan)(huan)是(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)(yi)排(pai)到(dao)前十，分(fen)別(bie)位列第六和(he)(he)第八。小(xiao)間(jian)(jian)距(ju)LED顯(xian)(xian)示屏(ping)從2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)開始呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)快速(su)(su)(su)成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要的(de)(de)(de)(de)情況：利亞(ya)德從2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)到(dao)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)復合(he)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)70%，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)更(geng)是(shi)(shi)(shi)爆發(fa);洲明(ming)80%;艾(ai)比(bi)森(sen)70%。間(jian)(jian)距(ju)減少一(yi)(yi)(yi)半(ban)，用量數(shu)倍增(zeng)加。